Muganga To Museveni: AI Is The Only Engine That Can Deliver Uganda’s $500 Billion Dream

By Gad Masereka

Victoria University Vice Chancellor Prof. Lawrence Muganga has once again written to President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni, this time presenting a detailed and data-backed roadmap showing how Artificial Intelligence can transform Uganda into a $500 billion economy by 2040, urging the government to stop treating technology as a future aspiration and start embracing it as an immediate national priority.

The letter, dated March 2026, comes as Muganga continues his relentless push for Uganda to join the global AI revolution. Over the past several years, the educator and economist has repeatedly written to both the Ministry of Education and State House, arguing that Uganda’s economic transformation will remain a distant dream unless the country makes bold, deliberate investments in digital infrastructure and technology-driven productivity. His latest communication is arguably his most detailed and his most urgent.

At the heart of Muganga’s proposal is the government’s own Ten-fold Growth Strategy, which seeks to grow Uganda’s Gross Domestic Product from the current $50 billion to $60 billion range to an ambitious $500 billion by 2040. Muganga says he believes the target is achievable, but insists it cannot be reached through conventional economic strategies alone.

“To achieve a $500 billion GDP by 2040, Uganda must sustain annual GDP growth rates of 14 to 18 percent for the next decade and beyond,” Muganga writes. “Can we achieve this using the same economic strategies, the same sectors and the same methods we have relied on for the past 20 years? I respectfully submit to you, Your Excellency, that the answer is no.”

Muganga acknowledges the importance of agriculture, coffee exports, oil and gas, manufacturing and mineral extraction, but argues that none of these sectors, even combined, can deliver the kind of explosive growth Uganda needs. The missing ingredient, he insists, is technology and specifically Artificial Intelligence.

To drive home the urgency of his argument, Muganga draws a comparison that is as alarming as it is illuminating. He reminds the President of his own observation that Africa’s combined GDP across 54 countries stands at approximately $3.3 trillion, a figure dwarfed by the United States economy valued at $40 trillion. But Muganga takes the comparison further, pointing out that individual technology companies have already surpassed Africa’s entire economic output. Nvidia, the chip manufacturer whose products power global AI systems, holds a market capitalisation of approximately $4.7 trillion. Apple stands at $4 trillion. Alphabet, Google’s parent company, sits at $3.8 trillion, and Microsoft commands $3.4 trillion.

“These numbers are not just statistics,” Muganga writes. “They are a call to action. The common thread connecting all these extraordinarily wealthy companies is beautifully simple and crystal clear. They have mastered technology.”

Central to Muganga’s vision is what he describes as the most consequential policy Uganda could adopt in the next five years, a One Laptop Per Child programme that would place a personal laptop or tablet in the hands of every one of Uganda’s approximately 15 million school-going children, from pre-primary through university. The devices, he proposes, should be solar-powered to function in areas without reliable electricity and manufactured locally in industrial parks such as Namanve or Kapeeka in partnership with international technology firms from China, the United States and elsewhere.

Muganga insists the programme is not an expenditure but an investment that more than pays for itself. He estimates the total cost of acquiring 15 million devices at between $1.2 billion in bulk procurement, while projecting government savings of up to $15 billion over a decade from the elimination of library construction, physical textbooks and computer laboratory infrastructure. The net saving to government, by his calculation, is as much as $13.8 billion.

On connectivity, Muganga urges the government to abandon the traditional and capital-intensive approach of laying thousands of kilometres of fibre optic cables and instead partner with low-earth orbit satellite internet providers such as SpaceX’s Starlink or Amazon’s Project Kuiper. He argues that these platforms can connect every school in Uganda to high-speed internet within months rather than decades, at a fraction of the cost of ground infrastructure.

The professor leans heavily on research from ARK Invest, one of the world’s most respected firms focused on disruptive innovation, to underpin his economic projections. He cites ARK’s findings that the world is currently experiencing the simultaneous convergence of five major innovation platforms including Artificial Intelligence, robotics, energy storage, multiomic sequencing and public blockchains, and that this convergence is expected to create a total global market capitalisation of $300 trillion by 2030. Of that figure, AI-driven platforms alone are projected to account for $210 trillion.

“AI will increase knowledge and worker productivity by an astonishing four times by 2030,” Muganga writes, citing studies showing that workers using AI tools complete tasks 40 percent faster with 18 percent higher quality. “This is the greatest wealth generation event in human history. The question before Uganda is urgent and existential. Will we participate in this wealth creation, or will we watch from the sidelines?”

Muganga’s optimism is rooted not just in technology but in Uganda’s demographics. He points out that over 76 percent of Uganda’s 46 million citizens are under the age of 34, describing this youthful population not as a burden but as the country’s greatest strategic asset. However, he warns that this demographic dividend will only convert into economic prosperity if young Ugandans are equipped with the skills and tools demanded by a 21st century economy.

The letter also addresses regional integration, a theme close to President Museveni’s heart. Muganga argues that while political federation within the East African Community remains a complex and slow process, economic integration through technology can happen immediately and organically. He paints a picture of a digitally empowered Ugandan youth collaborating seamlessly with peers in Nairobi, Dar es Salaam, Kigali and Addis Ababa to build products and services serving the entire region, and by extension, the world.

Muganga opens his letter by congratulating Museveni on his victory in the January 15, 2026 elections, where the President secured 71 percent of the vote, the highest percentage of his political career. He frames this electoral mandate as a sacred responsibility and a once-in-a-generation opportunity to leave a legacy that will be studied and celebrated for generations to come.

The letter concludes with a five-year implementation roadmap. In 2026, Muganga proposes the launch of the One Laptop Per Child policy alongside the establishment of device manufacturing at Namanve or Kapeeka. By 2027, five million devices would be distributed and all schools connected via satellite internet. By 2028, all 15 million children would be digitally equipped and GDP growth would accelerate to between 12 and 14 percent. By 2029, AI-powered education would be fully operational and Uganda would emerge as East Africa’s digital hub. By 2030, the country would be within striking distance of a $200 billion GDP milestone.

Whether President Museveni will respond to this latest letter remains to be seen. What is clear is that Muganga has no intention of staying silent. For him, the window to act is narrow, the stakes are generational, and Uganda’s future belongs to those bold enough to claim it.