OP-ED: Why FDC Is Suffering In Kasese and Nearing Extinction

By Hason Mutunzi Bwambale

A Once Mighty Opposition Force in Decline

For nearly two decades, the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) has been a political powerhouse in Kasese District — a stronghold of opposition politics and a symbol of resilience against the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM). From the return of multiparty democracy in 2005, FDC dominated Kasese’s political scene, producing vocal legislators, district leaders, and grassroots mobilisers who shaped Uganda’s opposition politics.
However, as Uganda moves toward the 2026 general elections, the FDC’s influence in Kasese is waning. What was once a unified, passionate political family has fragmented into competing camps plagued by infighting, leadership exits, and disillusionment. The party that once held six of Kasese’s parliamentary seats is now struggling to stay politically relevant.

The Roots of the Collapse: Internal Contradictions and Leadership Splits

The decline of FDC in Kasese can be traced to a series of internal contradictions that have fractured the party’s unity. The first major blow came in 2018 when former party president Maj. Gen. Mugisha Muntu broke away to form the Alliance for National Transformation (ANT). His departure was not just a national setback but a local crisis. In Kasese, Muntu’s close allies — Hon. Yokasi Bihande and his wife, Winnie Kiiza — were central to the party’s strength.
Winnie Kiiza, who had been Uganda’s first female Leader of the Opposition in Parliament, was abruptly replaced in 2018 by Dr. Kizza Besigye’s loyalists within FDC. This internal purge alienated moderates and weakened local morale. The exit of the Kiiza-Bihande family from active FDC politics left the party without some of its most experienced and respected figures, especially among women and the middle-class elite in Kasese Municipality and Bukonzo East.

Factionalism Deepens: Katonga vs Najjanankumbi

No sooner had the party recovered from the Muntu exodus than another ideological storm hit — the fierce standoff between the Katonga faction led by Dr. Kizza Besigye and the Najjanankumbi camp led by Secretary General Nandala Mafabi and Party President Patrick Oboi Amuriat.
In Kasese, this split took visible shape. While leaders like Hon. Robert Centenary (former Kasese Municipality MP) and Ronald Kabuku chose to remain loyal to the Najjanankumbi camp — with Centenary becoming FDC National Vice Chairperson for Western Uganda — several key mobilisers crossed to the newly formed People’s Front for Freedom (PFF), a pressure group aligned with Dr. Besigye. Among those who defected was veteran organiser Saul Maate, long considered one of FDC’s most effective grassroots pillars.
This division not only weakened FDC’s structures but also caused voter confusion and rivalry at the parish level. Former comrades turned into competitors, splitting an already shrinking voter base.

Losing Ground: From Electoral Powerhouse to Political Fragility

The electoral data reveal the depth of FDC’s decline. In the 2016 elections, FDC won six out of six parliamentary seats in Kasese, including the Woman MP seat. It was arguably the party’s strongest district nationally.
By contrast, in the 2021 general elections, the numbers reversed dramatically. The NRM captured three constituencies — Busongora North (Hon. Sowedi Kitanywa), Busongora South (Hon. Gideon Mujungu), and Kasese Municipality (Hon. Ferigo Kambale) — while FDC held on to Bukonzo West (Hon. Godfrey Atkins Katusabe), Bukonzo East (Hon. Harold Tony Muhindo), and the District Woman MP (Hon. Florence Kabugho).
This sharp decline reflected not only NRM’s strengthened mobilisation in the Rwenzori subregion but also deep voter fatigue within FDC’s ranks. Many supporters had grown weary of endless wrangles, poor coordination, and the absence of a unified opposition message.

The Fragmentation of the Opposition Vote

Kasese’s political environment has further evolved with the emergence of new opposition forces. The People’s Front for Freedom (PFF), largely composed of former FDC members loyal to Besigye, has positioned itself as the “true reformist alternative.” Meanwhile, the National Unity Platform (NUP) has gained traction among first-time voters and youth, especially in urban centers and border trading towns.
This new political competition has left FDC squeezed between the NRM’s strong rural machinery and the fresh appeal of newer opposition parties. The result has been a sharp erosion of FDC’s traditional blue vote, particularly in sub-counties such as Nyamwamba, Maliba, and Kyondo, where FDC once commanded sweeping support.
For example, in Busongora North, FDC veteran Saul Maate has declared support for NUP’s Joneni Bwambale — a move that undermines FDC’s former MP, William Nzoghu, and indirectly boosts the chances of NRM’s Kitanywa Sowedi. Similarly, in Kasese Municipality, Robert Centenary now faces stiff competition from PFF’s Mafunguro and popular Independent candidate Francis Kithulha Mugisa — both drawing from former FDC constituencies.
Organisational Weakness and Loss of Grassroots Trust
Beyond electoral math, FDC’s structural collapse in Kasese is evident in its disorganised local branches. The 2025 party primaries were marred by irregularities — missing registers, delayed voting, and contested results. In several sub-counties, local leaders complain of neglect from the national secretariat and lack of logistical support for mobilisation.
Once a party known for its discipline and robust internal democracy, FDC’s internal governance has deteriorated. Its youth and women’s leagues in Kasese are inactive, meetings are irregular, and funding is scarce. Without serious reform, the party risks losing its remaining grassroots confidence and institutional memory.

2026: The Litmus Test for FDC’s Relevance

The 2026 general elections will determine whether FDC still has a political heartbeat in Kasese. The stakes could not be higher. A poor performance would not only mark the end of FDC’s dominance in the district but could also accelerate its national decline.
To recover, FDC must reconcile its warring factions, rebuild its local networks, and reconnect with voters’ real needs — jobs, service delivery, and unity of purpose. The party must also invest in youth mobilisation and community-based political education to regain trust among first-time voters.
Without such deliberate restructuring, FDC risks being overtaken by NUP and PFF as the main opposition forces in the region.

A Party at the Crossroads

The story of FDC in Kasese is a cautionary tale of how internal divisions, leadership egos, and poor coordination can undermine a once-vibrant political movement. Once the pride of the Rwenzori opposition, FDC now stands at a dangerous crossroads — between reinvention and irrelevance.
Its survival depends on whether it can rebuild unity, discipline, and trust among its supporters. If it fails to address these issues before 2026, FDC may not just lose elections — it may lose its soul.

For the people of Kasese, the decline of FDC marks not just the fall of a party but the end of an era that once inspired political consciousness, accountability, and hope.

About the Author:
Hason Mutunzi Bwambale is a political commentator and social mobiliser based in Kasese District. He writes about governance, communication, and grassroots political dynamics in Uganda’s Rwenzori subregion.