Kampala, Uganda | THE INDEPENDENT | Uganda’s headline inflation for the 2024/25 financial three hundred and sixty five days averaged 3.4%, reflecting moderate model relate amid persisted power from meals and core service prices. The Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS) attributes the upward push to persistent increases in meals prices and a every day uptick in service-associated prices.
The financial three hundred and sixty five days closed with headline inflation at 3.9% in June 2025, a itsy-bitsy of above the 3.8% recorded in Might perhaps presumably well. “The three hundred and sixty five days’s average of three.4% was as soon as fashioned by persistent increases in meals crop prices, a every day climb in core inflation, and gentle-weight model shifts in energy, gas, and utility objects,” stated Samuel Echoku of UBOS.
The meals crop and associated objects class recorded the most effective probably power, with annual inflation at 4.7% in June, up from 4.3% in Might perhaps presumably well. Costs of very fundamental foodstuffs rose sharply all three hundred and sixty five days long. Dry beans inflation rose to 12.1% in June, up from 9.2% in Might perhaps presumably well. Cooking bananas (matoke) jumped to 37.7%, from 29.8% the old month. Passion fruits reversed a deflationary pattern, rising to 5.3% in June from -2.1% in Might perhaps presumably well. Irish potatoes remained deflationary, despite the proven truth that at a milder price of -0.6%, when as in contrast with -5.5% in Might perhaps presumably well.
These persistent increases made meals inflation a consistent driver of total model relate at some stage within the fiscal three hundred and sixty five days. Core inflation, which excludes unstable meals and energy prices, held regular at 4.2% in both Might perhaps presumably well and June 2025. On the opposite hand, service-associated prices at some stage within the class showed significant motion.
Outpatient care companies and products rose sharply to 7.9% in June from 4.5% in Might perhaps presumably well. Restaurants and lodging additionally saw a shrimp extend, mountain climbing to 4.7% from 4.6%. Other goods at some stage within the core class skilled marginal declines, falling to 3.7% in June from 3.8% in Might perhaps presumably well. Despite this, several staple objects recorded fundamental annual increases. Sugar rose by 3.9% in June, up from a decline of 4.0% in Might perhaps presumably well. Rice prices elevated to 7.6% from 3.7%, while maize flour jumped by 12.6% from 7.4%.
Inflation for Energy, Fuel, and Utilities (EFU) stayed unfavourable for so a lot of the three hundred and sixty five days, closing at -0.2% in June, up a itsy-bitsy of from -0.9% in Might perhaps presumably well. Firewood inflation slowed to 7.8% from 8.4%, while charcoal prices rose to 4.6% from 2.6%. Petroleum products persisted to register model declines. Petrol lowered by -6.6%, diesel by -4.7%, and liquefied gas by -4.9% in June.
On a month-to-month foundation, EFU inflation rose by 0.8% in June, pushed by worthy gas model increases. Charcoal rose by 2.1%, firewood by 1.9%, and both petrol and diesel saw modest increases. Uganda’s month-to-month headline inflation fell sharply to 0.1% in June, down from 0.5% in Might perhaps presumably well. This was as soon as essentially as a consequence of a steep descend in meals crop inflation, which declined by -2.2% after rising by 0.6% in Might perhaps presumably well.
Key drivers of this month-to-month meals model deflation included cooking bananas, which dropped by -9.3% in June after rising by 9.6% in Might perhaps presumably well. Current beans fell by -24.3% from a old extend of 15.3%. Mangoes dropped by -12.8% when as in contrast with 16.2% relate in Might perhaps presumably well. Cabbage fell by -13.9% from -7.4%, while tomatoes declined by -4.2% from -9.3%.
In distinction, month-to-month core inflation rose by 0.3% in June, mostly as a consequence of rising service prices. In step with UBOS’s COICOP (Classification of Individual Consumption by Draw) prognosis, the divisions contributing most to the 3.9% annual inflation price in June included housing, water, electrical energy, gas, and varied fuels, which rose to 2.9% from 2.4%. Game, sport, and tradition elevated to 2.8% from 1.9%. Knowledge and verbal change rose to 1.7% from 1.2%, while transport edged as a lot as 2.9% from 2.7%.
Smartly being companies and products rose to 4.6% from 4.4%, and restaurants and lodging companies and products climbed to 4.7% from 4.6%. Within the intervening time, some classes saw either slower inflation or outright declines. Education companies and products fell to 6.3% from 6.7%. Furnishings and family equipment dropped to 1.8% from 2.7%, while non-public care and miscellaneous goods slipped to 1.3% from 1.7%.
Despite sector-particular volatility, the FY2024/25 average inflation price of three.4% remained at some stage within the Bank of Uganda’s goal differ, indicating macroeconomic stability. On the opposite hand, dangers stay. Climate-associated disruptions, meals offer chain bottlenecks, and persistent increases in service prices would possibly additionally comprise an impact on future inflation traits. As Uganda enters FY2025/26, policymakers are expected to rigorously show screen these trends, particularly amid ongoing economic recovery and uncertainty in global gas markets.
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